"The Fed is likely to reduce the amount of short-term bond purchases around USD 20-30 billion to $ 65-55 billion per month," said analyst at MNC Securities, Edwin Sebayang in daily research, Jakarta, Monday (9/9).
The second is the decision to plan a military attack on Syria which of course if this happens, then the price of crude oil will 'fly' and will grow stronger USD as market participants will be looking for a safe place quality at times of uncertainty like that.
From within the country, Edwin said, the important thing to watch over the military to attack Syria if it happens then the price of Brent crude oil or crude closer to the ICP price could reach $ 120 per barrel in which the rise in oil prices could further increase the trade deficit that in January-July reached USD 5.65 billion.
"Where's widening deficit because of the large number of oil and gas imports reached USD 4.1 billion as of the end of July," he explained.
Rising crude oil prices combined with a weakening Euro will further endanger the budget.
"If the tapering is issued, whether Indonesia can survive if foreign funds exit where the last one year alone, approximately USD 50 billion of hot money into the local financial markets?'s Happened since the Fed boosted spending stimulus (Quantitative easing) to about USD 2 trillion , "he explained.